Ethiopia’s army says it is exercising restraint as fighting intensifies in Tigray, Afar and Amhara, raising fears of a new civil war.
Ethiopia Army Promises Restraint as Tigray Tensions
Ethiopia is facing renewed fears of a wider civil war as fighting intensifies in the northern regions of Tigray, Afar and Amhara. The federal army says it is responding to growing tensions with restraint, while opposition forces accuse the government of launching a major military offensive.
The latest escalation has raised serious concerns about the future of the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which ended the devastating two-year Tigray war. The renewed clashes are also increasing fears that Ethiopia’s internal conflict could develop into a broader regional crisis.
Ethiopia Army Calls for Strategic Restraint
Ethiopian Army Chief of Staff Field Marshal Berhanu Jula said the military was dealing with what he described as provocations from the Tigray front with “wisdom and restraint.”
He also accused Eritrea of providing financial and other support to armed groups seeking to weaken the Ethiopian government. According to the military leadership, the newly formed alliance of armed groups represents another attempt to challenge the federal government with outside assistance.
Eritrea has rejected the accusations. The country has also expressed concern over Ethiopia’s ambitions for access to the Red Sea, amid longstanding tensions between the two neighbours.
The Ethiopian military has said it prefers a policy of “strategic calm” rather than immediately entering into a large-scale confrontation. Officials have argued that armed groups in the Tigray conflict have lost some public support and that divisions exist within their leadership.
Fighting Spreads Beyond Tigray
The security situation has become increasingly complex since seven armed groups announced the formation of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival. The alliance has declared its opposition to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government.
Fighting has spread beyond Tigray into neighbouring Afar and Amhara regions. In Afar, clashes have reportedly intensified around Abala, where federal forces have been attempting to prevent armed groups from taking control.
In North Wollo, an area of Amhara bordering Tigray, the Ethiopian army reported heavy fighting during a recent counter-offensive. Military officials said 272 Tigrayan fighters were killed and 260 were wounded.
Those figures have not been independently verified.
The Tigray side has presented a different account of the fighting, accusing the federal government of launching a full-scale military offensive involving infantry, mechanised forces and drones. A member of the Tigray leadership described the situation as a “full war.”
Fighting has also been reported around Sama, Soqota and Raya Alamata, with government forces reportedly moving closer to Alamata.
Internet Blackout Raises Concerns
The escalation has also been accompanied by reports of an internet shutdown across parts of northern Ethiopia. Communications restrictions could make it more difficult to independently verify battlefield developments and reports of civilian casualties.
The United Nations has expressed concern over reports that drones were being used against civilians in the conflict-affected areas.
The situation has renewed international concerns about civilian protection, humanitarian access and the possibility of further displacement if fighting continues.
Pretoria Agreement Under Pressure
The renewed Tigray conflict is placing the Pretoria Agreement under significant pressure. The agreement, reached in 2022, brought an end to two years of devastating fighting between federal forces and Tigrayan forces.
However, disagreements over political arrangements, access to services, security and the implementation of the peace agreement have continued.
Alemayehu Weldemariam, a professor of law at Indiana University, argued that the federal government bears significant responsibility for the deterioration of the agreement. He pointed to restrictions affecting fuel, public services and cash in Tigray, as well as concerns over the implementation of an interim regional administration.
He also argued that the interim political arrangement had effectively become permanent and that Tigray had remained excluded from national elections.
These claims reflect one interpretation of the breakdown of the peace process, while Ethiopian government officials have continued to accuse armed groups and external actors of contributing to instability.
Risk of a Wider Regional Conflict
The latest Ethiopia-Tigray conflict comes at a sensitive time for the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia has sought to present itself as a regional force for stability, including by supporting peace efforts connected to neighbouring Sudan.
At the same time, tensions involving Eritrea, armed groups in northern Ethiopia and unresolved issues from the previous Tigray war could make the current crisis more difficult to contain.
For now, the Ethiopian army says it wants to avoid a major confrontation. However, continued fighting in Tigray, Afar and Amhara, combined with accusations involving Eritrea and the breakdown of trust surrounding the Pretoria Agreement, has increased concern over whether Ethiopia can prevent the latest violence from developing into another prolonged civil war.
