Middle East oil exports rise above pre-war levels as Strait of Hormuz tensions continue, with crude shipments reaching 22.5 million bpd.
Middle East Oil Exports Rise Above Pre-War Levels Despite Strait of Hormuz Tensions
Middle East oil exports have climbed above pre-war levels on several days despite continued tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, according to provisional shipping data. The increase highlights the resilience of regional crude oil shipments even as security concerns continue to affect one of the world’s most important energy routes.
Crude oil exports from the Middle East exceeded pre-war levels on September 24 and again from September 27 to September 29. During those days, regional crude shipments reached between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day (bpd).
Before the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran began, Middle East oil exports averaged about 18 million bpd between March 2025 and February 2026. The latest figures therefore indicate that crude oil flows have recovered despite heightened military and maritime tensions.
Strait of Hormuz Oil Shipments Continue
The Strait of Hormuz remains central to global oil supplies. The strategic waterway connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the wider Indian Ocean, making it a critical route for crude oil and energy exports from the Middle East.
Shipping data showed that the seven-day average for regional crude exports stood at 18.5 million bpd on October 1. The calculation includes shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, exports from regional terminals, and oil transferred between vessels in the Gulf of Oman.
However, the figures do not include vessels that may have crossed the Strait of Hormuz with their automatic identification system transponders switched off. Such vessels can be difficult to track, meaning the actual volume of oil moving through the waterway could differ from reported estimates.
The broader energy trade also remained substantial. Crude oil, refined petroleum products, chemicals and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million bpd during the seven days ending September 30.
Iran Claims Strait of Hormuz Remains Under Pressure
Iranian officials have continued to make strong statements about the security situation in and around the Strait of Hormuz.
Senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Ali Fadavi said that only around 3 million to 4 million bpd were currently moving through the route. He described that volume as negligible compared with traffic levels before the conflict.
Fadavi also claimed that US naval vessels were no longer present in the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, the Sea of Oman or the northern Indian Ocean. He said US warships remained vulnerable to potential attacks by Iranian forces.
Iran has also claimed responsibility for attacks targeting ships in the region, including claims involving US naval vessels. Tehran has said such attacks forced American warships to move farther away from Iran’s coastline.
These claims have added to uncertainty surrounding maritime security and the future of oil transportation through the region.
Oil Exports Remain Strong Despite Maritime Attacks
Despite the continuing security risks, crude oil exports have remained relatively strong. The data suggests that commercial shipping and energy companies have continued to move significant volumes of crude through alternative routes, terminals and maritime transfer points.
Liquefied natural gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz also increased in September, reaching their highest monthly level since February. This indicates that energy flows through the strategic waterway have not stopped entirely despite repeated warnings about disruptions.
At the same time, maritime security incidents have continued. UK maritime authorities reported at least one attack each day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden beginning October 2.
The combination of rising oil exports and continued attacks illustrates the complex situation facing global energy markets. While physical oil shipments remain significant, the threat of further disruptions could still influence crude prices, shipping costs and insurance premiums.
Iran Says Strait of Hormuz Will Remain Closed
Iran’s top negotiator and parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said on Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until the United States accepts Tehran’s conditions for reopening the waterway.
Iran has proposed a seven-day plan linked to the reopening of the strategic passage. The development could have major implications for global oil markets because millions of barrels of crude and other energy products normally pass through the region.
For now, shipping data indicates that Middle East oil exports have remained resilient despite the conflict and maritime security threats. However, continued tensions around the Strait of Hormuz could quickly alter oil flows and create fresh uncertainty for global energy markets.
